2010 Projected To Be Hottest Year on Record
Next year to be the world’s warmest on record, Met Office predicts
Timesonline (U.K.), Dec. 11, 2009
Next year is “more likely
than not” to be the world’s warmest year on record and man-made climate
change will be a factor, according to the Met Office.
It said that natural weather
patterns would contribute less to next year’s temperature than they did
in 1998, the current warmest year in the 160-year record.
El Niño effect, the cyclical
heating of the Pacific Ocean, is much weaker than it was in 1998 but
the Met Office expects the warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions
to more than make up the difference.
It announced at the
Copenhagen climate change summit that it expected the global average
temperature next year to be almost 0.6C warmer than the 1961 to 1990
average. It forecast an annual average of 14.58C compared with 14.52C
in 1998.
If the forecast proves
correct it will be a significant blow to climate change sceptics, many
of whom base their arguments on the fact that the temperature has not
returned to the 1998 peak. Despite wrongly predicting a “barbecue
summer” this year, the Met Office claims to have a good record of
accurately predicting global temperatures.
It correctly predicted that
this year would be 0.44C warmer than the long-term average, making it
the fifth-warmest year on record. However, it wrongly forecast that
2007 would be the warmest year. It turned out to be the sixth-warmest.
The Met Office also confirmed yesterday that it expected half the years between 2010 and 2019 to be warmer than 1998.
It sounded a note of
caution, saying that a record year in 2010 was not a certainty,
especially if the current El Niño began to decline earlier than normal
or there was a large volcanic eruption.
Ben Stewart, of Greenpeace,
said: “If 2010 turns out to be the hottest year on record it might go
some way towards exploding the myth, spread by the climate conspiracy
theorists, that we’re experiencing global cooling.
“In reality the world is getting hotter, possibly a lot hotter, and humans are causing it.”
The Global Warming Policy
Foundation, which claims man-made climate change has been exaggerated,
accused the Met Office of making a “political intervention” in the
international negotiations taking place in Copenhagen. It said:
“Suggestions by the Met Office that a warming trend will resume in the
next year or two should be treated with reserve in light of the
recognised difficulties in making such confident predictions.”
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
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