Developing Countries Drive New CO2 Surge
Carbon Emissions Dip In 2009, To Jump In 2010
Planetark.org, Nov. 22 2010
Global
emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide are on track to hit a record
in 2010, a leading annual study said , driven largely by booming
economies in China and India and their reliance on coal.
The
Global Carbon Project, a consortium of international research bodies,
also said annual emissions dipped 1.3 percent in 2009 from 2008 because
of the global financial crisis. But the fall was less than half the
decrease estimated a year ago.
"The
real surprise was that we were expecting a bigger dip due to the
financial crisis in terms of fossil fuel emissions," said Pep Canadell,
executive director of the Global Carbon Project and one of the
co-authors of the study published in the latest issue of the journal
Nature Geoscience.
The
findings come a week before the start of U.N. climate talks in Mexico
aimed at trying to find a way for nations to agree on a tougher pact to
curb greenhouse gas emissions.
But
Canadell also said new data and reduced loss of tropical rainforests
showed that emissions from deforestation had declined and now comprised
about 10 percent of mankind's greenhouse gas pollution. Previous studies
have said 12 to 17 percent.
Scientists
say rising levels of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, from burning fossil
fuels and deforestation is heating up the planet.
Canadell said 2009's drop would prove to be a blip.
Emissions
from fossil fuels were projected to increase by more than 3 per cent in
2010 if economic growth stayed on track, he told Reuters by telephone
from Canberra, Australia. This would mark a return to the high growth
rates of 2000-2008, he added.
"The
implication of this kind of growth rate is that you're quickly moving
into well beyond the 2 degrees Celsius warming target," he said,
referring to a level beyond which scientists say the world risks
"dangerous" climate change.
BIGGER SHARE
Voracious
demand for coal, oil and gas by China, India and Brazil as well as
demand for their goods was helping drive the increase.
"Emerging
economies are taking a bigger share of the global production of wealth
and they do it with more carbon-intense energy systems," said Canadell, a
senior scientist with Australia's top research body, the CSIRO.
In
2009, declines in fossil fuel emissions were largest in developed
nations. For example, emissions from the United States, the world's
second largest carbon polluter, fell 6.9 percent, Britain fell 8.6
percent and Japan fell 11.8 percent.
But
emissions from the world's top carbon polluter China rose 8 percent,
while India's increased 6.2 percent and South Korea 1.4 percent.
Despite
the slight dip in emissions in 2009, the study showed concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continued rising, reaching a record of
387 parts per million (ppm). This is compared with levels of about 280
ppm at the start of the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago.
Data
shows the world has already warmed on average about 0.7 degrees Celsius
over the past century and scientists say the globe is on track to
suffer more powerful storms, higher sea levels and severe droughts and
floods that could disrupt food supplies.
The
findings also show that in 2009 the global economy had slipped in terms
of energy efficiency because of an increased share of fossil fuel CO2
emissions from emerging economies.
The
study says the carbon intensity of global gross domestic product
improved in 2009 less than half of the long-term average. Carbon
intensity refers to fossil fuel emissions per unit of GDP.
"Both
globally and for emerging economies, the fraction of fossil fuel
emissions from coal increased in 2009, as in 2008," the study says.
Canadell
said better data and forest conservation policies in Brazil and
elsewhere were making a difference in curbing emissions from
deforestation.
"We
found global emissions from deforestation have decreased through the
last decade by more than 25 percent compared to the 1990s," he said.
But
emissions were still more than three billion tonnes of CO2 a year or
roughly three times the total emissions of the Japanese economy.
(c) Thomson Reuters 2010.
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