160 Syrian villages deserted due to climate change: study
Agence France-Presse, June 4, 2009
DAMASCUS,
Jun 02, 2009 (AFP) - Some 160 villages in northern Syria were deserted
by their residents in 2007 and 2008 because of climate change,
according to a study released on Tuesday.
The
report drawn up by the International Institute for Sustainable
Development warns of potential armed conflict for control of water
resources in the Middle East.
"The
2007/8 drought caused significant hardship in rural areas of Syria. In
the northeast of the country, a reported 160 villages have been
entirely abandoned and the inhabitants have had to move to urban
areas," it said.
In
Syria and also in Jordan, Israel and the occupied Palestinian
territories, "climate change threatens to reduce the availability of
scarce water resources, increase food insecurity, hinder economic
growth and lead to large-scale population movements," the report said.
"This could hold serious implications for peace in the region," the Canada-based institute said.
The
study, financed by Denmark, predicts a hotter, drier and less
predictable climate in the Middle East, "already considered the world's
most water-scarce and where, in many places, demand for water already
outstrips supply."
Oli
Brown, who co-wrote the report with Alec Crawford, said: "Climate
change itself poses real security concerns to the region. It could lead
to increased militarization of strategic natural resources,
complicating peace agreements."
"Israel
is already using climate change as an excuse to increase their control
over the water resources in the region," he said.
The
IISD said, however, that there is much that national governments and
authorities, civil society and the international community can do to
respond to climate change and the threats it may pose to regional peace
and security.
"They
can promote a culture of conservation in the region, help communities
and countries adapt to the impacts of climate change, work to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and foster greater cooperation on their shared
resources," the study said.
Brown
and Crawford's report says climate change could affect farm
productivity in Syria, where agriculture represents 23 percent of gross
domestic product and employs 30 percent of the active population.
"Some
13 percent of agricultural land was downgraded between 1980 and 2006
because of ... urban expansion and agricultural, industrial and tourism
activities," Fayez Asrafy, a desertification expert, told AFP.
"Rainfall
shrank by 10 millimetres (a year) between 1956 and 2006 while
temperatures rose by (an average) 0.5 degrees Celsius, though below the
worldwide average of 0.6 degrees," Syrian meteorologist Khales Mawed
said.
The
IISD predicts even modest global warming would lead to a 30-percent
drop in water in the Euphrates, which runs through Turkey, Syria and
Iraq, while the Dead Sea would shrink in volume by 80 percent by the
end of the century.
© Copyright AFP 2009.
