NAS Scientists: End Harrassment By Climate Skeptics
Letters
Science 7 May 2010: Vol. 328. no.
5979, pp. 689 – 690
Climate Change and the Integrity of Science
We are deeply
disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists
in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should
understand some basic scientific facts. There is always some uncertainty
associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves
anything. Whensomeone says that society should wait until scientists
are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the same as
saying society should never take action. For a problem as potentially
catastrophic as climate change, taking no action poses a dangerous risk
for our planet.
Scientific
conclusions derive from an understanding of basiclaws supported by
laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and mathematical and
computer modeling. Like all human beings,scientists make mistakes, but
the scientific process is designed to find and correct them. This
process is inherently adversarial—scientists build reputations and gain
recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom, but even more
so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that
there is a betterexplanation. That's what Galileo, Pasteur, Darwin, and
Einstein did. But when some conclusions have been thoroughly and deeply
tested, questioned, and examined, they gain the status of
"well-established theories" and are often spoken of as "facts."
For instance,
there is compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5
billion years old (the theory of the origin of Earth), that our universe
was born from a single event about 14 billion years ago (the Big Bang
theory), and that today's organisms evolved from ones living in the past
(the theory of evolution). Even as these are overwhelmingly accepted by
the scientific community, fame still awaits anyone who could show these
theories to be wrong. Climate change now falls into this category:
There is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence
that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies
and the ecosystems on which we depend.
Many recent
assaults on climate science and, more disturbingly, on climate
scientists by climate change deniers are typically driven by special
interests or dogma, not by an honest effortto provide an alternative
theory that credibly satisfies the evidence. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific assessments of climate
change, which involve thousands of scientists producing massive and
comprehensive reports, have, quite expectedly and normally, made some
mistakes. When errors are pointed out, they are corrected. But there
isnothing remotely identified in the recent events that changes the
fundamental conclusions about climate change:
(i) The planet is
warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our
atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact.
(ii) Most of the
increase in the concentration of these gases over the last century is
due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and
deforestation.
(iii) Natural
causes always play a role in changing Earth'sclimate, but are now being
overwhelmed by human-induced changes.
(iv) Warming the
planet will cause many other climatic patterns to change at speeds
unprecedented in modern times, includingi ncreasing rates of sea-level
rise and alterations in the hydrologiccycle. Rising concentrations of
carbon dioxide are making theoceans more acidic.
(v) The
combination of these complex climate changes threatens coastal
communities and cities, our food and water supplies, marine and fresh
water ecosystems, forests, high mountain environments, and far more.
Much more can be,
and has been, said by the world's scientific societies, national
academies, and individuals, but these conclusions should be enough to
indicate why scientists are concerned about what future generations will
face from business-as-usual practices. We urge our policy-makers and
the public to move forward immediately to address the causes of climate
change, including the unrestrained burning of fossil fuels.
We also call for
an end to McCarthy-like threats of criminal prosecution against our
colleagues based on innuendo and guilt by association, the harassment of
scientists by politicians seeking distractions to avoid taking action,
and the outright lies being spread about them. Society has two choices:
We can ignore the science and hide our heads in the sand and hope we are
lucky, or we can act in the public interest to reduce the threat of
global climate change quickly and substantively. The good news is that
smart and effective actions are possible. But delay must not be an
option.
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